Many–myself included–have argued that an Obama victory would be better for the long term health of a pro-liberty right. Romney’s defeat, this line of thinking goes, would force the GOP to reevaluate its beliefs and strategies, an outcome that could only benefit the young Ron Paul wing of the party.
Daniel McCarthy offers an alternative analysis. He argues that the Ron Paul movement only caught on the way it did because of the dissident right’s profound disappointment with the presidency of George W. Bush. A corollary to this observation (which McCarthy does not mention) is that the Tea Party–born in opposition to a Democratic President–has proven itself directionless and easily co-optable. When the Democrats are in power, it’s easier for different elements of the right to band together and pose as the party of liberty, even if most of those elements are profoundly anti-liberty.
On the other hand, McCarthy argues, “a Romney victory might, as the Marxists used to say, heighten the contradictions on the right to the point that reform becomes possible.” That is, Romney could provoke a civil war on the right as soon as he begins acting like Obama II (or Bush IV). And that would open up possibilities for noninterventionists and actual budget hawks who are currently frozen out of power.
It’s an interesting interpretation. But frankly, the short term prospects for a sane right are bleak no matter who wins. Even if we get the type of reevaluation we want–whether prompted by an Obama or a Romney victory–who is going to represent our side? Where are the actual budget hawks and noninterventionists who are going to take over the Republican Party, and–this is crucial–are they going to hire Jesse Benton?
